Wednesday, May 6, 2009

A diversionary Ohio poll on a rainy day

ALTHOUGH THERE are still mega-miles ahead in the major 2010 Ohio races, you can bet your rusty Wendell Willkie button that insiders from both parties will be carefully digesting the latest Quinnipiac poll for beneficial spins.  At this stage of the long journey,  polls tell us very little - unless, of course, they come in handy to influence the big early donors that their generosity would not not be forgotten.

The Q poll for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican George Voinovich, shows Lt. Gov Lee Fisher with a comfortable lead over Republican Rob Portman, 42 pct-31 pct, while Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, who is competing with Fisher in the Democratic primary, is ahead of Portman, 40- 31.  Both also have double digit leads over State Auditor Mary Taylor,  who is not expected to run at this point.

Gov. Ted Strickland has a 51-32 lead over former Republican congressman Republican John Kasich.   More important than the one-on-one matchups is the context in which Ohio politics is currently being played out.  President Obama has a 62-31 approval rating in the Buckeye state; Strickland, 52-37.  

The Democratic senate primary remains the focal point among the party's movers and shakers, with a back-channel effort by some  inside chess players to persuade Brunner to withdraw and run for the Ohio Supreme Court instead.  You might keep an eye on that opening gambit.

A strong word of caution:  A year before the 2008 presidential election in Ohio, the Q poll reported that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani (!!!!) were in a virtual tie.    We all know how that turned out on Election Day.  


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

With Maureen O'Connor likely to face a primary against Jim Petro in the Republican Primary for Chief Justice, Maureen may be ripe for the picking against a primary-less Brunner.