Dispatch rapid-response team fuels presidential speculation

NOTES FROM THE SECOND MORNING AFTER...

Well, it was just a matter of hours before the Columbus Dispatch set all of us on the right track for the 2016 presidential election with whoopie speculation about  two of its favorite Republican Buckeye politicians, Gov.John  Kasich and Sen. Rob Portman.

In a long front- page piece, the story began by describing Kasich's "smashing" win and Portman's "key role in helping the GOP take control of the Senate".

Smashing?  But only if you merely consider the raw numbers  after the governor ran up the score against  Ed FitzGerald's  posthumous  campaign to a cheering section filled with huge donors, media accolades and those practiced in convenient references to the Lord.  You may recall that Kasich went to Nevada and cast God's blessing on casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, in a blatant appeal for Big Money.  On Election night, caught up in the reverance of the moment, Kasich told us that God had placed a hand on him. That doesn't leave much hope for Portman.

To speculation about his future,  Kasich stayed in form by coyly dismissing  the question. He said  he's not "thinking about the future''.  As for Portman, his chief of staff told the Dispatch that the senator is "going to meet with his family about this issue over the coming weeks" and then with "trusted advisors",  a process that could take  months. That has always impressed me as Portman's normal speed.

Meantime, let the speculation roll.

Political experts quoted in the story  agreed that both would make "viable" candidates - but as President Obama once said, "You can only have one president at a time" in deference to the fact that George Bush still had a few weeks left  in his tenure following the 2008 election.

 A cautionary footnote:  The Dispatch poured out its heart to elect Mitt Romney and its home county of Franklin  went for Obama.

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More Grumpy style Meet the Press: The  Beacon Journal, as is its wont to be kind to   spoiled victors, described Kasich as '" governing from the center". Oh?  With hefty right-wing pals like Adelson and the Koch Brothers looking over his shoulder?

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While we're at it, might as well note that Armond Budish, a Democrat, defeated  his Republican opponent, Jack Schron,  for Cuyahoga County Executive rather handily despite the paper's endorsement of Schron.  The paper accused Budish of being " too partisan".     And for years I thought that partisanship  was high up on the to-do list of a politician!

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Finally, we turned to Huey Long's immortal words for the benediction on Tuesday's nightmare:  "One of these days  the people of Louisiana are going to get good government and they aren't going to like it.":



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Democrats, Republicans finally agree on something

WELL, WHAT HAPPENED on November 2 when the inmates took over the asylum?

We're in luck. There are no complicated answers!

On this point, there was sort of a political detente with sheathed swords Thursday night as a bipartsan panel of four campaign gurus agreed that the cause of the Democratic demise in Ohio (as elsewhere) was nothing more profound than an ailing economy. Beyond that, the autopsy produced the insiders' look into the cupboard of strategies that both sides employed - the theatrical props that adorn every campaign , from yard signs to polls to negative ads. Still, all of the traditional stuff appeared to be less important than the fixed perception that when a lot of folks are out of work, the only remedy is to fire the incumbents. To the winning sloganeers with their guaranteed fixes, one can only say good luck to that.

The occasion on panel night was the national conference of the American Association of Political Consultants hosted by the Bliss Institute at the University of Akron. The panelists, who would lead various discussions the next day, were Aaron Pickrell, Gov. Strickland's campaign manager; Michael Hartley, John Kasich's campaign manager; Former Ohio Republican chairman Robert Bennett and former Democratic campaign consultant, Gerald Austin. Bliss director John Green served as moderator.

Of the economic baggage lugged by Democrats in Ohio, Bennett observed that "tsunamis don't stop at the state line". That was soon obvious when the flood waters receded in Columbus. But Bennett was cautious about the long-term benefits to his party. He has witnessed too many reversals by the shifting voters over his many years in managing GOP business to be puffed up with overconfidence after this lopsided mid-term.

Meanwhile, Austin noted that all campaigns can be reduced to "good luck and bad luck." For Strickland the story was full of bad luck, some prompted by his own decisions. The governor's fate was sealed when Barack Obama was elected, Austin said, a novel idea that didn't appear in any of the other post-mortems. His reasoning: Strickland could not run against (i.e., blame) Washington because he and the president were both Democrats. With incisive satire, which has been often been associated with his long path through Ohio politics, Austin referred to Strickland's choice of head of the Ohio Department of Transportation from Brown County, a rural outpost in southwestern Ohio, quipping that the new director probably didn't even know where Cleveland was. He cited other things but you get the idea: bad luck.

On the other hand, Kasich arrived on the crest of the economic meltdown and as a friend of the newly emerging anger-philes souped up as the Tea Party. At that, he merely won a plurality in a close race although he has been sounding a lot like an Eliot Ness who ousted the bad guys by acclimation.

As for the Tea Partiers , Hartley tippy-toed lightly, describing the phenomenon as the "real deal. You can't play games with the Tea Party." That much was already confirmed by the way the TP's wiped out some Republican incumbents in the primaries. I don't think the old Republican lions know what to say or do about the new political menaces who moved into their neighborhood.

All the forthcoming internecine warfare will keep the speculators quite busy until the next election day. For now, Austin was content to compare winning politics with baseball: "See the ball. Hit the ball." That's not inside baseball either.

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Battleground visit

IT SEEMS as though we go through this every four years - not always, but the two Bush terms   make it seem so eternally true:  Ohio again is a battleground state in the 2008  presidential election.  What that means, according to the Democratic ledger,  is that without a win in Ohio, John McCain has no more than a one pct. chance in the national election. And then for all of the analyses, Ohio somehow lands in the GOP column, struggling economy, rising unemployment et al.   

But maybe things will be dramatically  different in Ohio this year. Just maybe.   In a conference call with Sen. Hillary Clinton on Monday, Gov.  Ted Strickland, one of her strongest supporters in the primary, said  the Ohio race was a "dead heat"  at this point but assured her that the Democrats' organization was in much better shape this year to claim victory for Barack Obama.  In turn, Hillary promised to campaign ardently "up and down the state" for her primary opponent, adding that four more years of a Republican in White House was not an option.  (Full disclosure: heard the whole conversation on a BlackBerry.) 

The main thrust of the party's confidence is the synergy between the Obama campaign and local party officials.  In past campaigns it was not uncommon to hear the locals complaining about the elites from the national campaign staff who were messing up things. Not so this year, says Wayne Jones, the Summit County Democratic chairman,   whose faint smile these days suggests something pleases him more than usual.  "A great thing is about to happen," he said at lunch, and he wasn't merely referring to his chili and salad.   He said he's been impressed by the scope and professionalism of Obama's troops this year.  

Summit County, of course, has long been unqualified  Democratic territory.  But Jones also likes the numbers this year:  Statewide, he says, the army of Obama workers had set a goal of canvassing 118,000 homes the past weekend, a number arrived at to equal the margin of  John Kerry's loss (So to speak!) to Bush in Ohio in 2004.  "Instead they went door-to-door to 173,000 homes," he said.  Other pluses, he noted, are a Democratic governor in the Statehouse, as well as Democrats newly occupying  all other state offices with the exception of auditor. The Democrats also have the secretary of state's office.  Remember how Ken Blackwell, the former occupant who was trounced by Strickland, sank deeply into the mire of confusion on how an honest election would be carried out in 2004.   His departure and those of others translate into a lot more political power in the precincts and at the polls for the Democrats. . 

New registrations have risen dramatically for the party and early absentee vote requests (30,000 now in hand)  suggest only the beginning of a big year, Jones says.  

Again, it shouldn't be this close in a state whose image as a troubled geographical reference point is only remembered, and often mocked,  nationally  every four years as a "battleground" state until the exit polls report the inevitable.  True, it might be different this year.  Quite different.  But I think I'll wait a little longer.